Timeline

In January and February, the national number of daily cases fell to under 20,000 from peaks of around 90,000 in September last year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared COVID beaten, and all places of public gathering opened. Soon, people were not adhering to COVID safety protocols, thanks in part to confused messaging from the top.

While Modi asked people to wear masks and follow social distancing in his public messages, he addressed large unmasked crowds during his election campaigns in five states. A number of his ministers were also seen addressing large public gatherings without wearing masks. The Kumbh Mela, a Hindu festival – which attracts millions – was also allowed to go ahead.

A coronavirus variant first detected in India in February has now gone global, spreading to dozens of countries and raising fears that the strain will overwhelm health care systems, reverse reopening plans and even potentially undermine the rollout of vaccines. But there is more to the story: the devastation has also exposed the underfunding and neglect of the public healthcare system in India. As one expert puts it, India’s “public health infrastructure was always broken, the rich and the middle class are just finding out”. Those who could afford it have always relied on private hospitals for treatment, while the poor struggle to get even a doctor’s appointment.

Officials say India produces enough oxygen to meet the spike in demand but transportation was the problem. Experts say this should have been fixed much earlier. The government is now running special trains carrying oxygen from one state to another and stopping use of oxygen in industries – but only after many patients died because of a lack of oxygen.

Also contributing to the severity of India’s COVID outbreak, experts believe the B.1.617 variant is driving the huge wave in infections seen across India in recent weeks. The country now makes up 50% of Covid-19 cases and 30% of deaths from the virus globally, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO designated B.1.617 and its sublineages as a “variant of concern” on May 10. That classification means a variant may be more transmissible or cause more severe disease, fail to respond to treatment, evade immune response or fail to be diagnosed by standard tests. B.1.617 was the fourth strain to be declared a “variant of concern” by the WHO; the others are B.1.1.7, which was first seen in the UK; B.1.351, first detected in South Africa; and P.1, first found in Brazil.

India is unlikely to resume major exports of COVID-19 vaccines until at least October as it diverts shots for domestic use, three government sources said, a longer-than-expected delay set to worsen supply shortages from the global COVAX initiative.

The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s biggest vaccine maker producing the AstraZeneca vaccine, responded by saying that it hoped to restart deliveries to COVAX and other countries by the end of this year.

“We would like to reiterate that we have never exported vaccines at the cost of the people of India and remain committed to do everything we can in the support of the vaccination drive in the country,” SII said in a statement.

Battling the world’s biggest jump in coronavirus infections, India halted vaccine exports a month ago after donating or selling more than 66 million doses. The move has left countries including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and many in Africa scrambling for alternate supplies.

 

Footnotes: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/exclusive-india-unlikely-resume-sizable-covid-19-vaccine-exports-until-october-2021-05-18/

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/health/variant-india-explained-coronavirus-intl-cmd/index.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56977653

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